Statistical Downscaling of Seasonal Forecasts of Sea Level Anomalies for U.S. Coasts

نویسندگان

چکیده

Increasing coastal inundation risk in a warming climate will require accurate and reliable seasonal forecasts of sea level anomalies at fine spatial scales. In this study, we explore statistical downscaling monthly hindcasts from six current prediction systems to provide high-resolution along the North American coast, including several tide gauge stations. This involves applying seasonally invariant operator, constructing by linearly regressing (1/12°) ocean reanalysis data against its coarse-grained (1°) counterpart, each hindcast ensemble member for period 1982–2011. The resulting have significantly more deterministic skill than original interpolated onto grid. Most improvement occurs during summer fall, without impacting seasonality noted previous studies. Analysis operator reveals that it boosts amplifying most predictable patterns while damping less patterns.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Geophysical Research Letters

سال: 2023

ISSN: ['1944-8007', '0094-8276']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2022gl100271